U.S. consumer confidence data has been trending higher since July of 2022 but there’s something about Q4 that has consumers spooked.
According to Morning Consult data, ICS (consumer sentiment), ICC (current conditions), and ICE (future conditions) have been on the rise since July of 2022. However, all 3 consumer survey results have taken a slight dip to the downside in Q4 . The stock market rebounded tremendously from its September blues and has met October and November with a phoenix like ascent. But there is just this one thing that has kept consumers cautious in Q4 and that might be expectations of the future , even with declining interest rates on the horizon in summer 2024.
Consumers are still unsure if they will be able to pay their bills in a declining interest rate environment although the GDP forecasts are expected to be larger than life. Even Goldman Sachs expects big economies to experience a soft landing with interest rate cuts leading to above expected GDP growth. As of right now, it seems the only thing holding back consumer sentiment, current conditions, and future conditions data is the consumer’s ability to make a monthly budget. See below for current data:
