Forex Predictions 2024: Trends Shaping The Forex Markets

These trends are likely to have a large impact on forex markets and as a result currencies will fluctuate to find a healthy equilibrium.

Forex markets continue to evolve from last year as 2024 marks a significant shift in monetary and fiscal policy. As market participants continue to digest the macroeconomic data from such a shift, markets have made new forex predictions for the rest of the year.

U.S. Market Moving Trends

In the United States, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of rising stock market margin debt, declining interest rates, a raging equity bull market, and declining inflation as evidenced by the PCE Price Index. The additional wildcard scenario, which may or may not play out, is the softening of geopolitical tensions which could lead to a re-establishment of legacy supply chains. These trends are likely to have a large impact on forex markets and as a result currencies will fluctuate to find a healthy equilibrium.

Predicted Currency Movements In 2024 and Global Trends

The U.S. dollar will be in the spotlight all year and one can’t help but think that rising stock market margin debt, an equity bull market, and declining interest rates will cause the dollar to weaken against its peers.

As a result, the USD/CAD is expected to weaken throughout the year as market participants trade in their U.S. dollars for U.S. stocks as many jump into the bull market. To go further, an expansion in Canadian oil production and much needed pipeline expansions will have a buoyant effect on the Canadian dollar as more Canadian oil gets to market on a smaller discount. The USD/CAD is predicted to move lower to hit 1.34 in Q2 and 1.33 in Q4.

The Euro is also expected to make a move on the U.S. dollar as demand for cash remains high around the Eurozone, especially in countries closest to the war in eastern Europe. In addition, the lack of investment options in European markets due to unfavourable growth prospects has pushed many citizens to hold cash and take advantage of high interest rates.

The Eurozone is also expected to hold higher interest rates for longer than the United States and the ECB still sees economic growth at elevated interest rates. The first rate cut in the U.S. will likely send the EUR/USD higher as it is predicted to move higher to reach 1.11 in Q2 and 1.10 in Q4.

The British Pound has already been at the heels of the U.S. dollar at the start of the year and it will be looking to double down in the summer and fall. The expectation is still that the U.S. Fed will cut rates before the Bank of England which is slightly bullish for the pound.

However, the much more bullish element was seen in a GfK survey on British household expectations for their personal finances. This figure came in at +2, up from 0 in February, and marked the first positive outlook for British households in more than two years. As a result, the GBP/USD is expected to rise to 1.28 in Q2 and 1.30 in Q4.

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